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Sellers Get Off the Fence as Mortgage Rates Continue to Drop; Why Recessions are Good for Most Home Buyers, but Not All
For Buyers:
It may be hard to believe, but recessions are historically the beginning of a turnaround for the housing market. After enduring more than 2 years of declining sales, sellers and buyers may start moving and transacting again. While recessions are negative for the economy (as they coincide with higher unemployment), two things typically occur that turn the housing market positive.
The first is home value stabilization. In every recession since 1970 (except for one infamous recession in 2008) home values had minimal fluctuation and appreciation year-over-year. The second is mortgage rates. Every recession since 1970 saw mortgage rates decline while at least 90% of the labor force remained employed. According to the August employment report from the Arizona Dept of Economic Opportunity, private sector earnings rose 7.3% annually in June, and 5.3% in July. Both rates are higher than the rate of inflation, and higher than the rate of home price appreciation. The combination creates an environment for increased home sales as affordability improves due to higher incomes, lower rates, and flat home appreciation.
Unfortunately, Mortgage News Daily showed zero improvement in purchase mortgage applications in August. The housing market simply doesn’t move as fast as the stock market, and it takes time for buyers to warm their engines and apply for mortgages after rates begin their decline. Partly because they wait to see if rates continue down or stabilize, but also because they don’t have an acceptable home in sight for motivation. As a result, application data often picks up after showings increase.
Future buyers may have one other obstacle to overcome, and that’s selling their existing home. This is what Greater Phoenix is experiencing now. As expectations of sustained rate declines increase, it’s sellers who are getting off the fence first. Weekly new listings are up 11% since rates began their decline on August 1st. These sellers will most likely become buyers within 1-3 months. This creates a good opportunity for buyers who are ready today. An early boost in supply without an offsetting boost in competing buyers means the buying environment will remain relaxed and accommodating over the next few months until the new year begins.
For Sellers:
September and October are the last hurrahs for home sale activity as 2024 enters its last stretch. New listings activated during this time should be well priced and in competitive condition to the listings around them. The median marketing time before contract is currently 33 days, so most properties listed in September should expect a contract in October. However, sellers who wait to list until late October will run into holiday speed-bumps that could tack on an extra 1-2 weeks before an acceptable contract.
While lower mortgage rates are expected to boost demand in price ranges under $2M, they don’t have much effect on the high-end luxury market where 55% of sales over $2M are cash. Recessions are not good for luxury because they coincide with poor stock market performance and stagnate corporate profits, which are the primary drivers for demand in this segment. So far, multiple headlines warning of an approaching recession are not tanking the stock market, and luxury listings under contract for September are higher than any other year. Other good news for luxury sellers, high cancellation rates from May-July dropped supply counts and launched Paradise Valley back into a seller’s market. In fact, all luxury sellers in the Northeast Valley saw market improvements from lower supply counts. However, uncertainty can still stall luxury sales in the 4th quarter. If un
employment rates continue to rise and uncertainty grows over a recession and the November election, the hope of an October rally could fade and contract activity stagnate until the election and holiday seasons have run their course. Hope and optimism will return at the kickoff of 2025 along with perfect weather, tourism, and an increasing flow of contracts.
Data provided by The Cromford Report
FOR SALE
4449 E DUBLIN Street Gilbert, AZ 85295
PRICE $510,000
3 beds 2.5 baths 2,426 SF #6757306
Move in ready! Spacious 3 bedroom + loft, 2.5 bath recently updated home in desirable neighborhood!
Light and bright, this home offers new laminate wood flooring/carpet and freshly painted throughout. Lower level with large living and family room, eat in kitchen with separate island, lots of counter space, pantry & new appliances-all included! Large master suite with his & hers walk in closets, double vanities & separate shower/tub.Bonus loft provides extra possibilities & convenient second floor laundry room (w/d included). Good sized backyard offers a blank canvas for your imagination. Sought after community is conveniently located near freeways, shopping, restaurants and offers lots of amenities, like heated pool, spa, playgrounds, sand volleyball and basketball courts.
FOR SALE
31020 N 42ND Way Cave Creek, AZ 85331
PRICE $585,000
3 beds 2 baths 1,857 SF #6732311
Great opportunity to live in Tatum Ranch at the right price! Barely lived in home has been lovingly maintained over the years.
Open and inviting floorplan with elevated entrance. Separate formal living room perfect for his or her space, media room, or kids area. Open great room with kitchen island and large family room area complete with built-ins. Split floorplan with two bedrooms, bathroom, and laundry room separate from master bedroom with large bathroom and walk-in closet. Enter your backyard complete with sparkling pool and water feature, mature landscaping, and automatic watering system. Pool resurfaced in 2024 and a new variable speed pump installed in 2023. Two car garage with extra shelving for storage. All three mounted TV’s convey along with decorative vase in family room Tatum Ranch is a perfect community for those looking to live a little outside the hustle and bustle of Phoenix, but still enjoy plenty of close amenities such as restaurants, shopping, golf courses, and hiking. Desert living at its finest!
FOR SALE
16014 E GLENBROOK Boulevard Fountain Hills, AZ 85268
PRICE $1,100,000
5 beds 3 baths 2,965 SF #6683581
Looking for a home with a casita in the NorthEast Valley? Look no further than this remodeled home on over an acre corner lot!
Spectacular mountain and sunset views from backyard! Primary home consists of 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Open and inviting ”circular” floorplan with soaring ceilings and custom fireplace. Updated kitchen with oversized island, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Beautiful views from large master bedroom complete with remodeled bath and walk-in closet with shelving. Casita has two additional bedrooms (one with a murphy bed for easy space conversion,) a kitchenette, and laundry hookups. Inviting patio off casita great for grilling with built in sink and counter space. New exterior landscape lighting adds ambiance to your outdoor retreat Owners invested over $25k to add new landscaping to compliment the easy-care turf. New PVC watering system with auto timers installed in front and backyards and hard-wired retractable awnings in back. Too many additional features to list: brand new water heater (9/24,) plantation shutters, electric wireless roll-up blinds at sliding doors, smart home nest thermostat and ring doorbell, RV gate, 4 car garage, with storage room and attic, water softener, fully fenced backyard, newer pool equipment. No steps, wheelchair friendly doors and hallway. Prior owner installed new dual pane windows and doors, added sunscreens, remodeled baths, recoated roof, and updated AC, air handler, and ductwork. Seller offers loan programs to make this home more affordable for you! Inquire within.
SOLD
5015 W BROWN Street Glendale, AZ 85302
PRICE $385,000
3 beds 2 baths 1,465 SF #6675397
Welcome home to your Farmhouse/Craftsman retreat with a stylish remodel. The kitchen is a standout a stunning white quartz sink with brushed gold accents, barn door pantry, and custom lighting.
Enjoy the durability of commercial-grade Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining, and living areas. The interior boasts premium plus scuff-defense paint, new doors, and 5” Shaker style trim/baseboards.
Illuminate your space with new lighting and ceiling fans. The home, with block construction and vaulted ceilings, is both stylish and structurally sound. A private backyard oasis includes a 20×40 pool.
FOR LEASE
1211 N MILLER Road, 110 Scottsdale, AZ 85257
PRICE $2,500
2 beds 2 baths 1,276 SF #6746125
BEAUTIFULLY REMODELED AND FULLY FURNISHED! Garage! Open floorplan, light and bright with vaulted ceilings, and accented fireplace.
New kitchen with white cabinets, quartz c-tops, high-end stainless steel appliances, and wine fridge. Neutral tile plank flooring and paint throughout. Split bedrooms. Large dual master suites, walk-in/oversized closets. Remodeled bathrooms with custom tilework backsplashes and new vanities. Upgraded lighting, brand new shutters and blinds. New furniture with a contemporary, Mid-century modern flair. Fully outfitted kitchen and linens provided. Direct community private access to Scottsdale Greenbelt. First floor corner unit that sides greenbelt. Heated pool and spa and shared BBQ’s.
LEASED
3500 N HAYDEN Road, 605 Scottsdale, AZ 85251
PRICE $1,675
2 beds 2 baths 955 SF #6710658
Nicely remodeled first floor condo with tile flooring throughout! Updated black appliances and granite countertops.
Large patio area, perfect for entertaining! New dual pane windows to help with the AZ summer heat! New washer. Sunscape has it all! Two sparkling pools with stylish furniture and a great scene, workout and yoga studios. This is a great place to live! Walk to Coronado Golf Course and Scottsdale Greenbelt! Minutes from Old Town, great location close to everything! Renter’s insurance is required. HOA has 40 lb weight limit for dogs.
LEASED
3031 N Civic Center Plaza, 240 Scottsdale, AZ 85251
PRICE $1,800
2 beds 2 baths 1,192 SF #6722708
Nicely furnished second level unit has split floor plan, master with walk in closet and exit to balcony. Great room feel, wood burning fireplace for those cold winter nights.
Separate storage area with plenty of room. Assigned covered parking. Coveted Old Town Scottsdale location – walking distance to galleries, shopping, restaurants and SF Giants spring training stadium. 15 minutes to airport and just a few from the 101. Gated community offers peaceful grounds with lush trees along the bridged walkways and amenities such as Olympic sized pool, heated pool, tennis & racquetball courts, lockers, BBQs, workout facility.
LEASED
6533 N 7TH Avenue, 7 Phoenix, AZ 85013
PRICE $1,900
3 beds 2 baths 1,417 SF #6732840
Amazing location!!! Cute 3 bedroom, 2 bath + LOFT town home in central Phoenix! Large, open floorplan, nice kitchen with breakfast bar!
Inviting fireplace, contemporary feel. Tile throughout downstairs and new carpet in upstairs bedrooms. Fresh paint! Master bedroom is downstairs, has large walk in closet and separate exit to patio area. Lots of natural light, high vaulted ceilings! Upstairs bedrooms are large. Cute backyard area with newly installed block wall for added privacy. Direct access to parking from patio area. Beautiful complex with lovely pool area steps from your front door!
LEASED
11305 E SUNNYSIDE Drive Scottsdale, AZ 85259
PRICE $2,800
3 beds 2 baths 1,441 SF #6735522
Great opportunity to live in one of North Scottsdale’s best locations! Inviting backyard with pool (fence available) and large covered patio.
Large kitchen with bar area open to family room. Updated and upgraded wood and tile flooring t-out living, kitchen, dining, master. Two way stacked stone fireplace. Wonderful vaulted ceilings allowing for extra light. Upgraded light fixtures and fans, contemporary paint and shutters. Upstairs master bedroom has his and her closets and a large bathroom including double sinks and oversized tub. Mountain views from bedroom windows! Easy care landscaping. Great neighborhood, close to the 101, McDowell Mountain Park, Mayo Clinic, hiking/biking trails, and many restaurants, markets and shopping.
LEASED
924 N 86th Scottsdale, AZ 85257
PRICE $3,250
3 beds 2 baths 1,628 SF #6710847
Trying to find the perfect furnished rental home in Scottsdale? Look no further! This home has been lovingly cared for and upgraded.
Unique design flair incorporating the love of travel with a contemporary feel. Bright and colorful living room with fireplace, piano, and view to atrium with fountain. Mounted TV and surround sound. Kitchen has upgraded SS appliances, large entertaining bar, and new quartz c-tops and fixtures. Wet bar with storage area. Three bedrooms, two full baths, plus a separate den that could be used as 4th bedroom or office. Large master bedroom w/dual sinks and jacuzzi tub. Oversized walk-in closet with built in closet organizer. Master looks out in to atrium with water feature. 3rd bedroom has slider out to lush and private seating area with fountain, perfect or reading or meditation. Brushed nickel fixtures throughout, neutral paint, ceiling fans in all rooms, dual pane windows, granite and quartz counters to list a few of the upgrades. One of the best lots in the community on the corner with no neighbors behind or to the side for added privacy. Large and deep unheated pool, perfect for the hot AZ summers. Separate quiet sitting area in backyard. Turf and a mixture of Arizona flowers and plants keeps the backyard looking lovely year round. Access to your own lemon tree and firepit for use. Solar hot water heater has been installed to lower electric bills. Indoor laundry with front loading washer and dryer. Nest thermostat and smart home systems. Use of one bay in garage. Fantastic location minutes to 101, 202, ASU, Old Town Scottsdale, and Phoenix airport. Community is quiet and has no through streets for noticeably limited traffic. ONLY BEING RENTED FURNISHED.
Landscaping and pool included. Does not include atrium or backyard fountain maintenance. Pool is not heated. Limited to use of one bay of garage. Owner is licensed Arizona real estate agent. Water, sewer, trash and electric responsibility of tenant.
MOST EXPENSIVE HOME SALE LAST MONTH
5724 E MOCKINGBIRD Lane Paradise Valley, AZ 85253
Price : $32,388,888
8 beds 12 baths 15,516 SF #6644575
Arizona’s most expensive home ever sold built by Luxury Living Homes and co-developed by Stately Development. This residence embodies stately real estate.
This estate sets the new Arizona record in many categories: Most expensive home ever sold in the state of Arizona. Most expensive pre-sale ever sold in Arizona. Most expensive residential spec home ever sold in Arizona. Most expensive $ per foot record ever sold for residential new construction in Arizona.
Most expensive $ per foot record ever sold for residential in Paradise Valley, Arizona and the most expensive estate ever double sided in Arizona.
THINGS TO DO
Did You Know About the Phoenix Attractions Pass? Where you can get discounts to all sorts of venues around the city?
Even if you aren’t in the market to adopt a new furry family member, there are many other ways you can help! Here are some of our favorite organizations looking for foster homes, volunteers, donations, and support with fundraisers!
A few organizations looking for fosters and support:
Lost Our Home Pet Foundation: https://www.lostourhome.org/
Arizona Pet Project: https://azpetproject.org/
Arizona Animal Welfare League: https://aawl.org/content/about-aawl
AZ RESCUE: http://www.azrescue.org/
Wildhorse Ranch Rescue: https://www.wildhorseranchrescue.com/
Safe Haven for Animals: https://www.azshfa.org/
Hearts That Purr: https://www.heartsthatpurr.org/
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Success Real Estate Group/Apartment Source
Alyssa Samuelson, Shawna Giefer, Sarah Hoyt, Kerry Hof
5636 N Scottsdale Road, Suite #170
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
PHONE: (480) 945-1111 | FAX : (480) 945-3626
WEBSITE: www.SouthScottsdaleHomes.com
Apartment Source, and its subsidiary, Success Real Estate Group, is a full service, state of Arizona, licensed real estate brokerage.
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